Expect a major change in the weather...

posted Nov 16, 2012, 7:56 AM by smike@guemesfire.org
313 PM PST THU NOV 15 2012

..A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS COMING THIS WEEKEND...

A SERIES OF STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL ARRIVE IN WESTERN WASHINGTON BEGINNING SATURDAY. EACH SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WIND TO MAINLY THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR...AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS...

RAIN...
RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE COAST AND OLYMPICS. ALL AREAS WILL GET
SOME RAIN. ANOTHER WAVE WILL KEEP THE RAIN COMING TO MAINLY WESTERN SECTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER VERY WET FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY. THE PATTERN REMAINS WET THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL A VERY WET PERIOD IS COMING. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT SOME FLOODING ON THE MOST FLOOD PRONE RIVERS IS LIKELY...

WIND...
BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE FIRST TWO MAJOR SYSTEMS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME HIGH WIND IS NOT FORECAST...BUT PARTS OF THE COAST AND THE NORTH INTERIOR WILL LIKELY GET WIND THAT IS JUST BELOW HIGH WIND...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH. SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS WINDY...BUT THERE IS USUALLY AT LEAST SOME WIND WITH FRONTS...

SNOW...
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FEET OVER THE NEXT WEEK WHILE COPIOUS PRECIPITATION FALLS. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS LIKE A SURE BET THAT THE REMAINING OPEN HIGH PASS... WASHINGTON PASS ON THE NORTH CASCADES HIGHWAY...WILL RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW. PLACES LIKE PARADISE ON MOUNT RAINIER AND MT BAKER WILL ALSO GET HEAVY SNOW. THE LOWER PASSES...SNOQUALMIE...STEVENS...AND WHITE...WILL PROBABLY GET A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES INCLUDING SNOW...RAIN...AND FREEZING RAIN. HEAVY SNOW IN ONE OR MORE OF THESE PASSES AT TIMES IS POSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS LIKELY TO BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED.

WEATHER MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING AND OTHER DETAILS WHEN THE PATTERN IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THIS APPEARS TO BE. WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SERIES OF STORMS HEADED OUR WAY...THERE SEEMS LITTLE DOUBT THAT WESTERN WASHINGTON IS HEADED THE SORT OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER THAT IS COMMON TO LATE NOVEMBER.

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